We all know that no matter how effective a horse racing system is, there are good and bad days. For example, your handicap technique can produce a high percentage of winners most of the time, BUT who’s to say those winners won’t be cheap chalk because that’s all the track is giving that day? Many of us would consider a chalky day a bad day.
I learned this technique in my searches both online and offline; I did not invent it. I don’t know who made it, but some of our disabled people have been using it for years.
First you need 3 pieces of information:
# 1 – How much money do you have?
# 2 – How many races / games are you going to bet?
# 3 – What is your approximate profit percentage?
Now I’m going to show you how to apply the full formula with hypothetical funds but actual win percentages (this will allow you to bet up to 4 selections and get ahead!)
# 1 – Let’s say we have a bankroll of $ 500 for the day.
# 2 – We are going to play 3 tracks with 9 races each (27 races played)
# 3 – We know that our winning percentage when choosing 4 horses is around 70%.
Next, what we do is leave a margin of error (yes, like political polls!). This is how we do it.
Take the 70% winning percentage (0.70) and multiply it by the winning percentage and then by the number of races we will play.
.70 x.70 x 30 = 14.7 so we take the square root of 14.7 (use a calculator for this!) The square root of 14.7 is 3.83 (keep that number).
Now we take the number of races we’re going to play 30 and multiply it by 70. Okay, we get 21. So, with an expected win rate of 70% from 30 races, one of our picks will hit.
21 of the 30 races.
Now, we subtract 3.83 from 21 and get 17.17 (our 3% margin of error). So now we round it up to 17. So we base our horse racing bets on 17 wins out of 30 races. Next, we subtract 17 from 30 and get 13 (that’s the number of losing runs we hope to have). Now we take our budget of $ 500 and divide it by 13. We get 38.46 or 38.
We must bet $ 38 on each race. But wait a second. We bet 4 horses. Do we bet $ 38 on each horse? NO! From experience, we can know that our top 2 teams win roughly. 63% of all wins and the last 2 apx. 37% So now we multiply 38 x 63% = 23.94 or $ 24.00 We must bet $ 24 on the 2 best selections.
Have I said EVERY selection? No! Split the bet to bet $ 12 to win on Selection 1 and 2. That leaves us with $ 14 to split on the 2 horses below. So we bet $ 7 on selections 3 and 4. So the bets on a Bankroll of $ 500 for 3 tracks (27 races) $ 38 per race looks like this:
Selection n. 1: $ 12 win in 27 races
Selection n. 2: $ 12 win for 27 races
Selection n. 3: $ 7 win for 27 races
Selection n. 4: $ 7 win for 27 races
My next suggestion is this. Keep in mind a goal for total percentage profit. And make it realistic!
How much percentage will you be happy to earn on your account today? 30%, 40% 60%? When you reach your goal, for God’s sake, stop gambling and go home. Remember that the longer you stay at the races and the more track you play, the more likely you are to favor the track or the casino.
Again, this will work if you plan ahead and know your approximate win percentage with whatever horse racing system you decide to use.